Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 21 2021 | 10233 | 44497 | 322 | 95 | 424 | 603 |
| January 22 2021 | 10271 | 44619 | 323 | 97 | 415 | 589 |
| January 23 2021 | 10311 | 44728 | 323 | 97 | 390 | 591 |
| January 24 2021 | 10350 | 44848 | 324 | 97 | 369 | 561 |
| January 25 2021 | 10370 | 44887 | 326 | 97 | 348 | 561 |
| January 26 2021 | 10389 | 44979 | 330 | 97 | 330 | 533 |
| January 27 2021 | 10454 | 45151 | 335 | 97 | 348 | 533 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.0 | 8.9% | 31 | 0.27% | 44 | 0.38% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 5.0 | 13.2% | 46 | 0.34% | 73 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 7.6 | 20.1% | 70 | 0.33% | 109 | 0.52% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 6.9 | 16.7% | 58 | 0.43% | 85 | 0.62% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 5.0 | 14.7% | 51 | 0.49% | 71 | 0.68% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 4.7 | 11.2% | 39 | 0.31% | 60 | 0.48% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 3.4 | 8.9% | 31 | 0.27% | 54 | 0.47% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.0 | 6.3% | 22 | 0.21% | 37 | 0.35% |
| All ages | 65 | 39.6 | 100% | 348 | 0.33% | 533 | 0.51% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 21 2021 | 6599 | 26316 | 199 | 74 | 304 | 506 |
| January 22 2021 | 6642 | 26392 | 200 | 76 | 299 | 466 |
| January 23 2021 | 6657 | 26463 | 200 | 76 | 302 | 430 |
| January 24 2021 | 6681 | 26515 | 200 | 76 | 252 | 417 |
| January 25 2021 | 6693 | 26544 | 200 | 76 | 239 | 398 |
| January 26 2021 | 6710 | 26597 | 201 | 77 | 226 | 367 |
| January 27 2021 | 6737 | 26668 | 201 | 77 | 224 | 382 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.7 | 6.7% | 15 | 0.19% | 27 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 4.1 | 14.7% | 33 | 0.39% | 43 | 0.51% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 2.9 | 12.1% | 27 | 0.38% | 45 | 0.63% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 4.1 | 17% | 38 | 0.45% | 68 | 0.81% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 5.1 | 18.3% | 41 | 0.53% | 67 | 0.86% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 3.0 | 13.4% | 30 | 0.31% | 58 | 0.6% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.0 | 7.6% | 17 | 0.2% | 36 | 0.43% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.3 | 10.3% | 23 | 0.32% | 38 | 0.53% |
| All ages | 27 | 25.3 | 100% | 224 | 0.35% | 382 | 0.59% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 21 2021 | 4950 | 17565 | 210 | 66 | 213 | 321 |
| January 22 2021 | 4984 | 17651 | 210 | 66 | 224 | 305 |
| January 23 2021 | 5006 | 17686 | 212 | 68 | 234 | 301 |
| January 24 2021 | 5024 | 17724 | 212 | 68 | 219 | 300 |
| January 25 2021 | 5036 | 17730 | 213 | 68 | 196 | 299 |
| January 26 2021 | 5043 | 17767 | 213 | 69 | 182 | 283 |
| January 27 2021 | 5059 | 17823 | 216 | 69 | 170 | 287 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.6 | 2.9% | 5 | 0.09% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 2.0 | 13.5% | 23 | 0.42% | 46 | 0.85% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 2.3 | 14.1% | 24 | 0.53% | 33 | 0.73% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 2.6 | 11.8% | 20 | 0.37% | 36 | 0.66% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 3.1 | 14.1% | 24 | 0.48% | 40 | 0.8% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 2.7 | 15.3% | 26 | 0.38% | 51 | 0.75% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.9 | 14.7% | 25 | 0.39% | 35 | 0.55% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.4 | 13.5% | 23 | 0.36% | 37 | 0.58% |
| All ages | 16 | 18.6 | 100% | 170 | 0.38% | 287 | 0.63% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 21 2021 | 11193 | 47815 | 292 | 69 | 418 | 648 |
| January 22 2021 | 11217 | 47967 | 292 | 69 | 400 | 624 |
| January 23 2021 | 11279 | 48077 | 292 | 70 | 377 | 588 |
| January 24 2021 | 11299 | 48149 | 293 | 70 | 372 | 582 |
| January 25 2021 | 11382 | 48266 | 297 | 70 | 422 | 607 |
| January 26 2021 | 11417 | 48422 | 315 | 70 | 412 | 600 |
| January 27 2021 | 11458 | 48566 | 320 | 70 | 433 | 556 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.7 | 6.9% | 30 | 0.25% | 41 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 9.3 | 21.2% | 92 | 0.56% | 104 | 0.63% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 9.4 | 18.9% | 82 | 0.39% | 107 | 0.5% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 4.7 | 12.5% | 54 | 0.4% | 78 | 0.57% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 6.0 | 14.5% | 63 | 0.46% | 80 | 0.59% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 5.7 | 12% | 52 | 0.37% | 67 | 0.47% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.4 | 7.6% | 33 | 0.23% | 45 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.9 | 6.2% | 27 | 0.21% | 34 | 0.26% |
| All ages | 41 | 42.1 | 100% | 433 | 0.37% | 556 | 0.47% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 21 2021 | 36746 | 304217 | 1109 | 228 | 1220 | 2023 |
| January 22 2021 | 36944 | 305563 | 1112 | 228 | 1311 | 1936 |
| January 23 2021 | 37078 | 307082 | 1115 | 229 | 1335 | 1889 |
| January 24 2021 | 37193 | 308041 | 1121 | 231 | 1206 | 1802 |
| January 25 2021 | 37285 | 308444 | 1124 | 229 | 1159 | 1759 |
| January 26 2021 | 37352 | 309153 | 1128 | 240 | 1055 | 1719 |
| January 27 2021 | 37396 | 309826 | 1133 | 240 | 963 | 1653 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.9 | 4.6% | 44 | 0.07% | 84 | 0.14% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 15.0 | 12.8% | 123 | 0.17% | 224 | 0.32% |
| 20-29 | 20 | 26.6 | 23.9% | 230 | 0.22% | 411 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 21.4 | 18.2% | 175 | 0.23% | 281 | 0.37% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 15.3 | 12.7% | 122 | 0.19% | 217 | 0.33% |
| 50-59 | -1 | 16.3 | 13.8% | 133 | 0.2% | 213 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 9.3 | 8.1% | 78 | 0.14% | 133 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | -2 | 6.6 | 6% | 58 | 0.12% | 90 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 44 | 115.3 | 100% | 963 | 0.18% | 1653 | 0.3% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 21 2021 | 528101 | 2457032 | 23445 | 5607 | 19755 | 29563 |
| January 22 2021 | 530171 | 2463344 | 23536 | 5643 | 19035 | 28159 |
| January 23 2021 | 531852 | 2469123 | 23625 | 5685 | 18582 | 26794 |
| January 24 2021 | 532971 | 2474335 | 23692 | 5691 | 16989 | 26081 |
| January 25 2021 | 533917 | 2477588 | 23748 | 5699 | 15666 | 25571 |
| January 26 2021 | 535218 | 2481735 | 23883 | 5753 | 15030 | 24082 |
| January 27 2021 | 536546 | 2486960 | 23976 | 5787 | 14752 | 23276 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 92 | 92.4 | 6% | 881 | 0.14% | 1409 | 0.22% |
| 10-19 | 175 | 192.4 | 12.7% | 1880 | 0.25% | 2909 | 0.38% |
| 20-29 | 198 | 245.3 | 15.9% | 2343 | 0.31% | 3810 | 0.5% |
| 30-39 | 184 | 228.6 | 15.2% | 2237 | 0.3% | 3499 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 221 | 210.3 | 13.7% | 2022 | 0.29% | 3188 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 180 | 225.9 | 15% | 2220 | 0.27% | 3474 | 0.43% |
| 60-69 | 151 | 172.6 | 11.4% | 1684 | 0.22% | 2670 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 127 | 150.0 | 10.1% | 1485 | 0.23% | 2317 | 0.36% |
| All ages | 1328 | 1517.4 | 100% | 14752 | 0.25% | 23276 | 0.4% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.9 | 53.7 | 52.1 | 39.6 | 48.4 | 26.2% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59.1 | 25.3 | 36.7 | 29.1% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63.4 | 18.6 | 22.3 | 31.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 62.8 | 50.3 | 42.1 | 44.9 | 25.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.2 | 31.5 | 39.6 | 115.3 | 158.3 | 11% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 38.4 | 50.3 | 1517.4 | 2161.4 | 22.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.61 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-17 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4942"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges